Warning: Euro Could Crash After Greek Exit [View article]
Exporting corporations win big with a low Euro, while all the pain is felt in the debtor nations. The longer this can be dragged out, the better for exporting nations.
There is a matrix of outcomes for Greece: Leave EU, keep Euro Leave EU, new Drachma Remain in EU, keep Euro Remain in EU, new Drachma
Now add a dimension with the various options for dealing with the Greek debt: Stop paying (simple default) Renegotiate to junk bonds with no due date and no interest Austerity and partial repayment ECB or IMF takeover of bond obligations EU control of Greek budget and tax collection
I don't dare try to predict the outcome, but I am quite certain that my German ADR dividend stocks will be paying out based on a far better EURUSD rate in two years.
Eurogroup chief Juncker says the Troika has finalized and presented the Greek debt report, and is confident of a decision on Greece being made on Feb. 20. This follows a teleconference with eurozone finance minsters. For some reason, the euro bounces, jumping more than 30 pips to $1.3080. [View news story]
Greece's problems hold the Euro down. A low Euro helps the exporters in Germany. All the pain is felt in the south. I have an idea! Lets make this problem last as long as possible.
Warning: Euro Could Crash After Greek Exit [View article]
If anyone leaves the Euro, it will be the countries to the north of the Alps. The northern European and eastern European countries will follow Germany if the European Union changes the rules to allow the EU to lend (print) money on its own.
The EU was formed based on the idea that each country has the ability to control its own budget and the Euro would not be manipulated to cause inflation. The big question is who will win in the EU parliament regarding allowing EU to take a role in monetary policy.
If the Mediterranean states win, the northern and eastern states will leave the Euro.
Looks like a repeat headline, but isn't: Negotiators say Greece and private creditors are close to a deal on a debt swap. Now, creditor reps Charles Dallara and Jean Lemierre may offer interest rates that would mean bigger losses for bondholders that would still be recouped if strong growth returns. (last weekend) [View news story]
A weak Euro helps German export companies. A weak Euro means local German companies have an advantage against exports in the home market. All the pain will be felt south of the Alps. Win Win for Germany as long as the crisis is not solved.
If there is a split, it will be the countries north of the Alps who leave the Euro (not the EU) for a new Mark. All of eastern Europe will follow. The Mediterranean countries will be left holding the bag.
Greek Default And Devaluation: Would It Even Matter? [View article]
Warning: Euro Could Crash After Greek Exit [View article]
There is a matrix of outcomes for Greece:
Leave EU, keep Euro
Leave EU, new Drachma
Remain in EU, keep Euro
Remain in EU, new Drachma
Now add a dimension with the various options for dealing with the Greek debt:
Stop paying (simple default)
Renegotiate to junk bonds with no due date and no interest
Austerity and partial repayment
ECB or IMF takeover of bond obligations
EU control of Greek budget and tax collection
I don't dare try to predict the outcome, but I am quite certain that my German ADR dividend stocks will be paying out based on a far better EURUSD rate in two years.
Eurogroup chief Juncker says the Troika has finalized and presented the Greek debt report, and is confident of a decision on Greece being made on Feb. 20. This follows a teleconference with eurozone finance minsters. For some reason, the euro bounces, jumping more than 30 pips to $1.3080. [View news story]
Warning: Euro Could Crash After Greek Exit [View article]
The EU was formed based on the idea that each country has the ability to control its own budget and the Euro would not be manipulated to cause inflation. The big question is who will win in the EU parliament regarding allowing EU to take a role in monetary policy.
If the Mediterranean states win, the northern and eastern states will leave the Euro.
Looks like a repeat headline, but isn't: Negotiators say Greece and private creditors are close to a deal on a debt swap. Now, creditor reps Charles Dallara and Jean Lemierre may offer interest rates that would mean bigger losses for bondholders that would still be recouped if strong growth returns. (last weekend) [View news story]
If there is a split, it will be the countries north of the Alps who leave the Euro (not the EU) for a new Mark. All of eastern Europe will follow. The Mediterranean countries will be left holding the bag.