Deere & Company: Canary in the Austerity Coal Mine [View article]
Markos, your statement "... Yes, our entitlement programs are out of control, and yes our democratic demigods have reached the limit of sane spending. But no, now is not the time to implement austerity...." is incomplete without telling us when is the time to implement fiscal and monetary sanity and return to a semblance of sound money, budget balance, and bearable deficits? Next year ? 2012 ? 2013? The excuse that "now is not the time" will be always with us.
IMHO, the time was several years ago, and we have procrastinated ever since, and the longer we procrastinate, the deeper we dig ourselves into the hole. This vicious spiral must end, and the sooner the better, because this is how great nations have bankrupted themselves into oblivion throughout history.
The Europeans have shown wisdom and courage to take the bulls by the horn before it is too late, we need to do the same.
What Russia's Wheat Export Ban Means for Agriculture Stocks [View article]
Secular trend is significant rise in prices of all sorts of food and commodities. Naturally, much whipsawing to be expected, but this trend is inexorable over the coming decades.
Western economies shall re-balance, with real things like food rising in value relative to the considerable number of "services" that have no intrinsic value. Naturally, services with true intrinsic value, like health care & useful education, will rise as well.
Looking at the Market from a Rational Perspective [View article]
" Here are some examples. Deere & Co (DE) fell from about $94 down to $25 at the March low and has rallied 88% up to $47 ...."
I had never owned DE before, but recently purchased a position in the high 20's after a little research, intending to hold it for the long term. My thoughts were intrinsic value in the mid 30's. After holding it for a few weeks, I sold most of my position in the mid 40's for an attractive return in excess of 60%.
This illustrates the enormous divergence of sense of value between different market participants. Some thought it was worth $90+ just a couple of years ago. I was glad to sell it in the mid-40's for a tidy profit, to someone who obviously thought it was a bargain. I don't think that anyone involved is smart or stupid, it's just that different market participants can look at the same thing and come up with very different conclusions regarding value.
Deere & Company: Canary in the Austerity Coal Mine [View article]
IMHO, the time was several years ago, and we have procrastinated ever since, and the longer we procrastinate, the deeper we dig ourselves into the hole. This vicious spiral must end, and the sooner the better, because this is how great nations have bankrupted themselves into oblivion throughout history.
The Europeans have shown wisdom and courage to take the bulls by the horn before it is too late, we need to do the same.
What Russia's Wheat Export Ban Means for Agriculture Stocks [View article]
Western economies shall re-balance, with real things like food rising in value relative to the considerable number of "services" that have no intrinsic value. Naturally, services with true intrinsic value, like health care & useful education, will rise as well.
Looking at the Market from a Rational Perspective [View article]
I had never owned DE before, but recently purchased a position in the high 20's after a little research, intending to hold it for the long term. My thoughts were intrinsic value in the mid 30's. After holding it for a few weeks, I sold most of my position in the mid 40's for an attractive return in excess of 60%.
This illustrates the enormous divergence of sense of value between different market participants. Some thought it was worth $90+ just a couple of years ago. I was glad to sell it in the mid-40's for a tidy profit, to someone who obviously thought it was a bargain. I don't think that anyone involved is smart or stupid, it's just that different market participants can look at the same thing and come up with very different conclusions regarding value.