Fully agree with your logic, and have now gratefully exited from the remainder of my HOG position for a tidy profit. May wade into it again, if and when reality returns to the equities market.
Harley Davidson: Plan for More Downside [View article]
I agree with the author in the short-term. My guess is that sales and earnings will languish for some time, with the bottom not yet in sight, and likely worse than current management expectations.
However, I have been a fairly successful value investor, and I like to buy good companies when they are cheap. HOG is a great brand, but I am glad I closed out my earlier positions some time ago. Recently I bought a few shares @$12, a bit more @$10 and a lot more @$8. I would greatly appreciate it if some readers of this article follow the author's advice and short the stock and drive it down, as I would like to pick some more below $8 before I sit back and wait it out.
I realise that (a) if the recession becomes a depression the company may ultimately fail; and (b) even without depression, I may have to wait some years before the stock recovers the 30's; but all in all these are risks that I find acceptable for the potential reward of 300%-500% appreciation over a period of, say, 4-7 years.
Harley Davidson Executives, Investors Wear Generational Blinders [View article]
Harley Davidson: Plan for More Downside [View article]
However, I have been a fairly successful value investor, and I like to buy good companies when they are cheap. HOG is a great brand, but I am glad I closed out my earlier positions some time ago. Recently I bought a few shares @$12, a bit more @$10 and a lot more @$8. I would greatly appreciate it if some readers of this article follow the author's advice and short the stock and drive it down, as I would like to pick some more below $8 before I sit back and wait it out.
I realise that (a) if the recession becomes a depression the company may ultimately fail; and (b) even without depression, I may have to wait some years before the stock recovers the 30's; but all in all these are risks that I find acceptable for the potential reward of 300%-500% appreciation over a period of, say, 4-7 years.
Savings, Consumption and the Economy: 'Lord, Make Us Thrifty, But Not Yet' [View article]